Bette Midler returning to Broadway as Super Agent Sue Mengers

LOS ANGELES (TheWrap.com) – Bette Midler will return to Broadway for the first time in 30 years to play legendary agent Sue Mengers.

The Divine Miss M will star in John Logan‘s new play “I’ll Eat You Last: A Chat With Sue Mengers.”

For Midler, it is a chance to return to her theatrical roots at a time when her career is experiencing something of a revival. Largely absent from screens for much of the past decade, Midler is starring in the unexpected family comedy hit “Parental Guidance,” which has grossed nearly $ 70 million worldwide since debuting last month.

The chain-smoking, unapologetically brash Mengers was an icon among the New Hollywood set. In a male-dominated time and profession, she became the first female “super agent,” representing the likes of Nick Nolte, Burt Reynolds, Candice Bergen, Ryan O’Neal, Steve McQueen and Barbra Streisand. She rose up the Hollywood ranks despite modest beginnings as a refugee from Nazi Germany. In addition to her professional achievements, her dinner parties were legendary and a ticket to a Mengers’ gathering was considered a sign that a new talent had arrived.

Mengers kept her real age secret, although she was widely believed to be around 80 when she died in 2011 after suffering a series of small strokes. Graydon Carter, her friend and the editor of Vanity Fair, first reported Mengers’ death in a blog post. Carter is one of the producers of “I’ll Eat You Last.”

Logan, who wrote the play, won a Tony Award for “Red,” which examined the life of painter Mark Rothko. He recently wrote the screenplay for the last James Bond movie, “Skyfall,” which has grossed north of $ 1 billion at the worldwide box office.

Logan said he only met Mengers one time at a dinner party, but he was drawn to her wit and sense of sadness.

“At one point I asked her what had changed most about Hollywood since she had arrived,” Logan recalled in a statement. “She didn’t hesitate for a second: ‘Honey, we used to have fun…’ Later in the evening she settled back and lit up a joint. There she was: a joint in one hand and a cigarette in the other. At that moment I knew I had to write the play.”

Tony Award-winning director Joe Mantello (“Wicked,” “Take Me Out”) will stage the play. The show will open April 24 at a Shubert theatre to be announced.

Midler got her start appearing in the Broadway productions of “Fiddler on the Roof” and the rock musical “Salvation” in the 1960s, before becoming a Grammy-winning and Oscar-nominated singer and actress.

In addition to her work in films, such as “The Rose” and “Down and Out in Beverly Hills,” Midler’s stage work includes the Tony Award-winning “Clams on the Half Shell,” the Radio City Music Hall concert “Experience the Divine” and “The Showgirl Must Go On,” which headlined at The Colosseum in Caesars Palace.

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Pap Test May Prove Useful at Detecting More Types of Cancer, Study Suggests

The Pap test, which has prevented countless deaths from cervical cancer, may eventually help to detect cancers of the uterus and ovaries as well, a new study suggests.

For the first time, researchers have found genetic material from uterine or ovarian cancers in Pap smears, meaning that it may become possible to detect three diseases with just one routine test.

But the research is early, years away from being used in medical practice, and there are caveats. The women studied were already known to have cancer, and while the Pap test found 100 percent of the uterine cancers, it detected only 41 percent of the ovarian cancers. And the approach has not yet been tried in women who appear healthy, to determine whether it can find early signs of uterine or ovarian cancer.

On the other hand, even a 41 percent detection rate would be better than the status quo in ovarian cancer, particularly if the detection extends to early stages. The disease is usually advanced by the time it is found, and survival is poor. About 22,280 new cases were expected in the United States in 2012, and 15,500 deaths. Improved tests are urgently needed.

Uterine cancer has a better prognosis, but still kills around 8,000 women a year in the United States.

These innovative applications of the Pap test are part of a new era in which advances in genetics are being applied to the detection of a wide variety of cancers or precancerous conditions. Scientists are learning to find minute bits of mutant DNA in tissue samples or bodily fluids that may signal the presence of hidden or incipient cancers. Ideally, the new techniques would find the abnormalities early enough to cure the disease or even prevent it entirely. But it is too soon to tell.

“Is this the harbinger of things to come? I would answer yes,” said Dr. Bert Vogelstein, director of the Ludwig Center for Cancer Genetics and Therapeutics at Johns Hopkins University, and a senior author of a report on the Pap test study published on Wednesday in the journal Science Translational Medicine. He said the genomes of more than 50 types of tumors had been sequenced, and researchers were trying to take advantage of the information.

Similar studies are under way or are being considered to look for mutant DNA in blood, stool, urine and sputum, both to detect cancer and also to monitor the response to treatment in people who already have the disease.

But researchers warn that such tests, used for screening, can be a double-edged sword if they give false positive results that send patients down a rabbit hole of invasive tests and needless treatments. Even a test that finds only real cancers may be unable to tell aggressive, dangerous ones apart from indolent ones that might never do any harm, leaving patients to decide whether to watch and wait or to go through surgery, chemotherapy and radiation with all the associated risks and side effects.

“Will they start recovering mutations that are not cancer-related?” asked Dr. Christopher P. Crum, a professor at Harvard Medical School who was not involved in the research.

But he also called the study a “great proof of principle,” and said, “Any whisper of hope to women who suffer from endometrial or ovarian cancer would be most welcome.”

DNA testing is already performed on samples from Pap tests, to look for the human papillomavirus, or HPV, which causes cervical cancer. Dr. Vogelstein and his team decided to try DNA testing for cancer. They theorized that cells or DNA shed from cancers of the ovaries and the uterine lining, or endometrium, might reach the cervix and turn up in Pap smears.

The team picked common mutations found in these cancers, and looked for them in tumor samples from 24 women with endometrial cancer and 22 with ovarian cancer. All the cancers had one or more of the common mutations.

Then, the researchers performed Pap tests on the same women, and looked for the same DNA mutations in the Pap specimens. They found the mutations in 100 percent of the women with endometrial cancer, but in only 9 of the 22 with ovarian cancer. The test identified two of the four ovarian cancers that had been diagnosed at an early stage.

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Wall Street Modestly Higher

Wall Street stocks traded higher on Wednesday after Alcoa got the earnings season under way with better-than-expected revenue and an encouraging outlook for the year.

The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index rose 0.2 percent in late trading, the Dow Jones industrial average added 0.4 percent and the Nasdaq composite index was up 0.4 percent. European shares closed moderately higher.

Alcoa said it expected global demand for aluminum would continue to grow in 2013, though the company kept a cautious tone as worries lingered over a looming budget confrontation in Washington. Shares of Alcoa, the largest aluminum producer in the United States, were almost unchanged.

Still, investors were wary about the outcome of the fourth-quarter earnings season. Profits were expected to beat the previous quarter’s lackluster results, but analysts’ estimates were down sharply from where they were in October. Earnings were expected to grow by 2.7 percent, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Equities have pulled back over the last two sessions from last week’s rally, which was spurred by a deal in Washington that averted automatic spending cuts and across-the-board tax increases.

“With the euphoria of the fiscal cliff deal wearing off, the market is looking for the next positive theme and the hope is that earnings season can fill that need,” said Andre Bakhos, director of market analytics at Lek Securities in New York. “With expectations muted, any semblance of decent numbers could provide a robust upside potential.”

Constellation Brands, whose labels include Robert Mondavi and Ravenswood wines, fell 0.4 percent after it reported higher profit.

Apollo Group slid more than 7 percent after it reported lower student sign-ups for the third straight quarter and cut its operating profit forecast for 2013.

Dish Network late Tuesday announced a bid for Clearwire that trumped Sprint Nextel’s $2.2 billion offer, setting the stage for a battle over the wireless service provider. Clearwire was up 7.8 percent, while Sprint lost 1.8 percent.

Seagate Technology, the maker of computer hard drives, rose 5.9 percent after it raised its second-quarter revenue forecast.

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Testimony about Colorado massacre resumes in James Holmes hearing

More emotional testimony was expected at a hearing on the Aurora movie theater massacre, as prosecutors continued to lay out their case against the defendant, James Holmes.

CENTENNIAL, Colo. — Vivid testimony about the movie theater massacre that shocked a nation extended into a second day as a preliminary hearing for James E. Holmes resumed Tuesday.

Prosecutors continued to lay out their case against Holmes, 25, accused of killing 12 people and injuring about 70 during a shooting rampage on July 20 in a suburban cinema. At issue in the proceeding, expected to last a week, is whether there is a sufficient case to go to trial.

In the first day of testimony Monday, law enforcement officials described the bloody shooting scene and heartbreaking rescue attempts to bring the gravely wounded to treatment.

PHOTOS: Colorado movie theater shooting

The prosecution has been trying to show that Holmes acted deliberately while the defense in cross-examination has focused on how the former neuroscience graduate student appeared emotionally detached, bolstering their expected insanity presentation.

Throughout, Holmes has sat impassive, while some of the victims' relatives have wept during the more graphic testimony.

On Tuesday, the atmosphere at the Arapahoe County Court House contained less of the frenzy that marked the first day. Yet the proceedings come as the debate over gun control has heated up in the wake of the attack last month in Newtown, Conn., in which 20 children and six adults were killed by a lone gunman who invaded the Sandy Hook Elementary School. The gunman first killed his mother in their home and ended his shooting spree by killing himself.

WHO THEY WERE: Aurora theater shooting

Tuesday’s testimony also comes as the nation commemorates the second anniversary of the Tucson shooting where six died and 13 were injured when gunman Jared Lee Loughner opened fire in a supermarket parking lot where former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords was holding a meet-and-greet with her constituents. Tucson, which has had events for several days, will mark the exact time of the shooting with the ringing of bells across the city at the moment of the morning attack.

Giffords, who went through a painful recovery and rehabilitation for gun wounds to the head, has become a spokeswoman for greater gun control. She and her husband, former astronaut Mark Kelly, announced they would raise money to support gun control efforts. The pair visited Newtown last week.

On Monday, Aurora police testified about the horrors they found in the theater, including blood-soaked aisles and walls, crumpled bodies, and scores of spent shell casings.

TIMELINE: U.S. mass shootings

The prosecution also showed surveillance video of Holmes entering the theater complex just past midnight. He had purchased his ticket 12 days earlier. The chilling, soundless video shows Holmes redeeming his ticket at a kiosk, giving it to a ticket taker, then lingering near the concession stand for a few minutes before turning toward Theater 9, where the Batman movie, “The Dark Knight Rises” was playing.

Prosecutors have yet to announce whether they will seek the death penalty.

ALSO:

Supreme Court rejects challenge to Obama stem cell policy

Chicago man fatally poisoned a month after hitting lotto jackpot

Alabama police: High school white supremacist planned bomb attack

Deam reported from Centennial, Colo.; Muskal reported from Los Angeles. 

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Help Wanted: Astronauts Needed for Mars Colony

Mars One, a nonprofit organization based in the Netherlands, intends to establish a human settlement on Mars in 2023.

They need astronauts.

Anyone on planet Earth can apply if they meet the basic requirements. But obviously, the job isn’t for just anyone.

Today, Mars One released its application criteria. Among other virtues, astronaut candidates must have “a deep sense of purpose, willingness to build and maintain healthy relationships, the capacity for self-reflection and ability to trust. They must be resilient, adaptable, curious, creative and resourceful.” And be at least 18 years old (no maximum age has been set).

The selection process will begin during the first half of 2013. Mars One experts and viewers of a “global, televised program”  — think reality TV where the prize could be a trip to a dry, dusty world — will choose from among the applications. Those ultimately selected will be assembled into teams of four. At least six teams are supposed to be ready to launch in September 2022. But only one team will make the first trip to the Red Planet, and that team will be decided democratically.

“The people of Earth will have a vote which group of four will be the first Earth ambassadors on Mars,” the Mars One website says. Subsequent teams will be sent in two-year intervals.

At least eight years of training will be provided before launch, including simulated missions, practice in a restricted mobility environment, and lessons in electronics, equipment repair, basic and critical medical care. In 2016, the company plans to begin rocketing supplies to Mars, including spare parts, two rovers, and living units that can be assembled into a base once humans arrive.

But it’s a one-way trip for all involved: Once on Mars, there’s no coming back.

Video: Mars One

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Spielberg earns 11th Directors Guild nomination

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Steven Spielberg has extended his domination at the Directors Guild of America Awards, earning a nomination Tuesday for his Civil War epic “Lincoln” to pad the record he already held to 11 film nominations from the guild.

Also nominated were past winners Kathryn Bigelow for her Osama bin Laden thriller “Zero Dark Thirty”; Tom Hooper for his musical “Les Miserables”; and Ang Lee for his lost-at-sea story “Life of Pi.”

Rounding out the Directors Guild lineup is first-time nominee Ben Affleck for his Iran hostage-crisis tale “Argo.”

The Directors Guild field is one of Hollywood’s most-accurate forecasts for who will be in the running at the Academy Awards, whose nominations come out Thursday. The winner at the Directors Guild almost always goes on to win the directing prize at the Oscars, too. Only six times in the 64-year history of the guild awards has the winner there failed to follow up with an Oscar.

Besides the record number of feature-film nominations, Spielberg also has won the Directors Guild prize a record three times, for “The Color Purple,” ”Schindler’s List” and “Saving Private Ryan,” along with directing Oscars for the latter two. He received the guild’s lifetime-achievement award in 2000.

Bigelow became the first woman ever to win the guild honor and the directing Oscar three years ago for “The Hurt Locker.” Hooper won the same prizes a year later for “The King’s Speech,” while Lee is a two-time guild winner for “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” and “Brokeback Mountain,” the latter also earning him the directing Oscar.

Affleck, who also stars in “Argo,” follows such actors-turned-filmmakers as Clint Eastwood, Kevin Costner and Mel Gibson to earn a Directors Guild nomination.

Overlooked by the guild were past nominees Quentin Tarantino for his slave-revenge tale “Django Unchained” and David O. Russell for his oddball romance “Silver Linings Playbook.”

The film that receives the Directing Guild prize typically also goes on to win the best-picture Oscar, a prize Spielberg has earned only once, for “Schindler’s List.” No clear front-runner has emerged yet for the Feb. 24 Oscars, with “Lincoln,” ”Zero Dark Thirty” and “Les Miserables” all considered strong prospects to take home Hollywood’s highest honor.

Sunday’s Golden Globes will help sort out the Oscar picture, as will the various guild prizes that will be handed out in late January and February on the run-up to the Academy Awards.

Winners for the 65th annual Directors Guild awards will be announced at a Hollywood dinner Feb. 2, with Kelsey Grammer as host for the second year in a row.

Milos Forman, director of “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” and “Amadeus,” will receive the guild’s lifetime-achievement award.

___

Online:

http://www.dga.org

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Health Spending Growth Stays Low for 3rd Straight Year

WASHINGTON — National health spending climbed to $2.7 trillion in 2011, or an average of $8,700 for every person in the country, but as a share of the economy, it remained stable for the third consecutive year, the Obama administration said Monday.

The rate of increase in health spending, 3.9 percent in 2011, was the same as in 2009 and 2010 — the lowest annual rates recorded in the 52 years the government has been collecting such data.

Federal officials could not say for sure whether the low growth in health spending represented the start of a trend or reflected the continuing effects of the recession, which crimped the economy from December 2007 to June 2009.

Kathleen Sebelius, the secretary of health and human services, said that “the statistics show how the Affordable Care Act is already making a difference,” saving money for consumers. But a report issued by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in her department, said that the law had so far had “no discernible impact” on overall health spending.

Although some provisions of the law have taken effect, the report said, “their influence on overall health spending through 2011 was minimal.”

The recession increased unemployment, reduced the number of people with private health insurance, lowered household income and assets and therefore tended to slow health spending, said Micah B. Hartman, a statistician at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

In the report, federal officials said that total national spending on prescription drugs and doctors’ services grew faster in 2011 than in the year before, but that spending on hospital care grew more slowly.

Medicaid spending likewise grew less quickly in 2011 than in the prior year, as states struggled with budget problems. But Medicare spending grew more rapidly, because of an increase in “the volume and intensity” of doctors’ services and a one-time increase in Medicare payments to skilled nursing homes, said the report, published in the journal Health Affairs.

National health spending grew at roughly the same pace as the overall economy, without adjusting for inflation, so its share of the economy stayed the same, at 17.9 percent in 2011, where it has been since 2009. By contrast, health spending accounted for just 13.8 percent of the economy in 2000.

Health spending grew more than 5 percent each year from 1961 to 2007. It rose at double-digit rates in some years, including every year from 1966 to 1984 and from 1988 to 1990.

The report did not forecast the effects of the new health care law on future spending. Some provisions of the law, including subsidized insurance for millions of Americans, could increase spending, officials said. But the law also trims Medicare payments to many health care providers and authorizes experiments to slow the growth of health spending.

“The jury is still out whether all the innovations we’re testing will have much impact,” said Richard S. Foster, who supervised the preparation of the report as chief actuary of the Medicare agency. “I am optimistic. There’s a lot of potential. More and more health care providers understand that the future cannot be like the past, in which health spending almost always grew faster than the gross domestic product.”

Evidence of the new emphasis can be seen in a series of articles published in The Archives of Internal Medicine, now known as JAMA Internal Medicine, under the title “Less Is More.” The series highlights cases in which “the overuse of medical care may result in harm and in which less care is likely to result in better health.”

Total spending for doctors’ services rose 3.6 percent in 2011, to $436 billion, while spending for hospital care increased 4.3 percent, to $850.6 billion.

Spending on prescription drugs at retail stores reached $263 billion in 2011, up 2.9 percent from 2010, when growth was just four-tenths of 1 percent. The latest increase was still well below the average increase of 7.8 percent a year from 2000 to 2010.

Federal officials said the increase in 2011 resulted partly from rapid growth in prices for brand-name drugs.

Prices for specialty drugs, typically prescribed by medical specialists for chronic conditions, have increased at double-digit rates in recent years, the government said. In addition, spending on new brand-name drugs — those brought to market in the previous two years — more than doubled from 2010 to 2011, driven by an increase in the number of new medicines.

“In 2011,” the report said, “spending for private health insurance premiums increased 3.8 percent, as did spending for benefits. Out-of-pocket spending by consumers increased 2.8 percent in 2011, accelerating from 2.1 percent in 2010 but still slower than the average annual growth rate of 4.7 percent” from 2002 to 2008.

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Wall Street Trades Lower as Earnings Reports Begin

Stocks trading on Wall Street ticked lower on Tuesday as an earnings season that is expected to show sluggish corporate growth got under way.

The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index fell 0.5 percent in afternoon trading, the Dow Jones industrial average lost 0.5 percent and the Nasdaq composite index fell 0.4 percent.

Over the next couple of weeks, reports on fourth-quarter profits are expected to come in above the previous quarter’s lackluster results, but analysts’ current estimates are down sharply from where they were in October. Quarterly earnings are expected to grow by 2.8 percent, according to Thomson Reuters data.

German data showed industrial orders fell more than forecast in November because of a sharp drop in demand from abroad, reinforcing concerns that Europe’s largest economy may have contracted in the fourth quarter of 2012.

“I’m surprised futures are holding up, given the relative disappointment that German data showed, but I think all eyes are on the beginning of earnings season,” said Kim Forrest, senior equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh.

European shares ended mixed after the German report, with the DAX index in Frankfurt down 0.5 percent and the CAC 40 in Paris up slightly.

Monsanto shares rose 2.7 percent after the world’s largest seed company raised its earnings outlook for fiscal 2013 and posted strong first-quarter results.

Shares of the restaurant-chain operator Yum Brands fell 4.7 percent. On Monday, the company, which owns KFC, warned that sales in China, its largest market, shrank more than expected in the fourth quarter.

Vodafone shares rose 1.7 percent in London after its American partner in the joint venture Verizon Wireless said it would be “feasible” to buy out the British group.

Sears Holdings shares were 5.5 percent lower a day after the company said its chief executive would step down for family health reasons.

GameStop shares fell 5.8 percent after it reported sales for the holiday season and cut its guidance.

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Ten banks to pay $8.5 billion to settle foreclosure abuse review

WASHINGTON -- Ten of the nation's largest mortgage servicers have agreed to an $8.5-billion settlement with federal regulators to end a review of foreclosure abuses.

The settlement, announced Monday, involved some of the biggest names in the financial industry, including Bank of America Corp., Wells Fargo & Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc..

They agreed to pay a total of $3.3 billion to more than 3.8 million borrowers whose homes were in foreclosure in 2009 and 2010, according to the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Borrowers could receive as much as $125,000, depending on the type of problems with their foreclosures.

In addition, the banks agreed to provide $5.2 billion in other assistance to those borrowers, including modifications to their mortgages or having judgments against them forgiven.

The other servicers participating in the settlement are Aurora Loan Services, MetLife Bank, PNC Financial Services, Sovereign Bank, SunTrust Banks and U.S. Bancorp. Four smaller servicers whose foreclosure practices have been under review did not sign on to Monday's settlement.

Under the original plan devised by the comptroller and the Federal Reserve in April 2011, 4.4 million Americans whose homes were in foreclosure proceedings in 2009 and 2010 could request a free review. Only about half a million have done so.

Regulators decided to stop the reviews in exchange for the cash payments and assistance.

Borrowers who requested reviews would get bigger cash payments. Those that did not would get a few hundred dollars. Those who requested reviews would get bigger payments.

"When we began the Independent Foreclosure Review, the OCC pledged to fix what was broken, identify who was harmed and compensate them for that injury," said Comptroller of the Currency Thomas J. Curry. 

"While today's announcement represents a significant change in direction," he continued, "it meets those original objectives by ensuring that consumers are the ones who will benefit and that they will benefit more quickly and in a more direct manner."

Curry said that although regulators have "have learned a great deal from the reviews ... it has become clear that carrying the process through to its conclusion would divert money away from the impacted homeowners" and delay compensation to the borrowers.

Rep. Elijah E. Cummings (D-Md.), criticized the decision by regulators to reach a settlement with the mortgage servicers. 

"I am deeply disappointed that the OCC and the Federal Reserve finalized this settlement and effectively terminated the Independent Foreclosure Review process before providing Congress answers to serious questions about how this settlement amount was determined, who these funds will go to, and what will happen to other families who were abused by these mortgage servicing companies, but have not yet had their cases reviewed," Cummings said.

He said he didn't know "know what the rush was to make this settlement without answering these key questions" and that he had "serious concerns that this settlement may allow banks to skirt what they owe and sweep past abuses under the rug without determining the full harm borrowers have suffered."

 ALSO:

Investors bet BofA can begin to focus on expansion

$10-billion settlement of foreclosure abuse cases said to be near

Bank of America to pay Fannie Mae $10 billion in loan settlement

Follow Jim Puzzanghera on Twitter and Google+.

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Why Nvidia's New Console Portends a Transformational Year for Gaming

For videogames, 2013 will be the year of the hardware avalanche. It’ll happen all of a sudden and almost surely cause catastrophic, unpredictable change.

Today at the Consumer Electronics Show, PC hardware maker Nvidia announced its entry into the gaming console market with Shield. It’s based on Android and looks like a smartphone glued to an Xbox controller. Not only will it play Android games, it’ll stream PC games and features an HDMI out for TV display — making it a home console.

In addition to Shield, the upstart Ouya project is humming along, with game creators and hobbyists already tinkering with development kits. This Android-based game machine that was funded on Kickstarter is also slated to drop early this year. Additionally, Valve’s rumored Steam-based console is no longer just a rumor — last month, CEO Gabe Newell told Kotaku it will sell hardware starting in 2013, and PC Gamer added today a report that a Valve engineer recently corroborated this news and said that Valve’s living-room machine would run off Linux.

Meanwhile, the Wii U was just born and there’s every reason to believe that Microsoft and Sony will at least take the veils off, if not actually ship, their new gaming consoles this year. What these upstart devices, from the Steam box to the Shield, all have in common is that they are attempting to upset the console gaming paradigm of the $300 device and the $60 game. A Steam box would aim to bring all kinds of gaming price points to the living room, from free-to-play to full-priced, day-one, triple-A blockbusters (which can then have their prices slashed far below what Microsoft et al. are comfortable with). Ouya and Shield want to use the Android app store to sell cheap but good-looking 720p games on your TV.

I’ve noticed something a little dismaying about the coverage that tends to spring up whenever a new gaming device is introduced. Namely, pundits rush to produce stories about how it is a stupid idea that will never work. Here’s Gamasutra on Shield: “a confused mishmash of current trends.” Penny Arcade: “There is little evidence that mainstream gamers are interested in playing Android games on their television, or in lieu of their other portable gaming options.”

What do you mean, a forest? All I see are these trees! While analyzing the individual merits and flaws of this device or that device can certainly be useful and fun, I think the big picture is getting lost: Everything about living-room gaming is going to change. More and more consumers will be buying their games on open platforms, all but a handful of the biggest games will be playable on these open platforms and they will cost significantly less money than we are paying for them now. The fate of each individual hardware device does not change this; if Ouya goes out of business tomorrow it does not mean that this is not still going to happen.

Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter sent out a note about the state of the traditional console gaming market this morning that included this remark: “We believe that the next generation consoles from Microsoft and Sony will be multimedia devices, and believe that the added features and functionality will allow sales to grow by 10-20% over their current generation offerings, provided pricing is comparable.”

I can’t get my head around how this scenario happens. Microsoft and Sony have sold, roughly, a combined 150 million consoles this generation with effectively zero competition — if you wanted to play the biggest and best games you needed an Xbox 360 or a PlayStation 3. But the next consoles will be released into a vastly different market, one in which Valve plans to sell you a cheap off-the-shelf Linux box that plugs into your TV and plays — I mean, have you looked at all the games on Steam these days?

Fun side note: As game development veteran Ben Cousins pointed out this morning in a Kotaku story, Sony’s and Microsoft’s likely rewards for selling those 150 million consoles have been billions of dollars of losses. By his reckoning, Nintendo is the only company that’s made one thin freaking dime off the game console business in the last decade.

Anyway, there is now a ridiculous amount of competition for gamers’ attentions that simply didn’t exist before. Another prescient Kotaku story: Steven Totilo pointing out that you, yes you, may already own a next-generation gaming console. If all the big games you want to play are released on the PC you already own and are playable with a controller on a TV, what’s the justification for laying out more cash on a new console?

So how is it again that Sony and Microsoft are going to sell more consoles this cycle, when there are so many emerging alternatives?

As I said in my recent piece on the death of the game console, these machines are going to have to be ready for radical change and bring something truly new and innovative to the table. So it’s entirely possible that Microsoft and Sony could really surprise us at E3 with a radical transformation of what an Xbox or a PlayStation can be.

Meanwhile, each new device that competes directly with them takes a stab at pulling the rug out from underneath the big players. It doesn’t matter to us which Android-based device, if any, actually succeeds in the marketplace, because the idea of marrying the Android app store to televisions is the key, not the individual box that does it. Ouya can have a piece, Nvidia can have a piece, and many other makers can release Android-based game devices. Game developers will just support them all in the way they can support a wide variety of slightly different telephones.

It may turn out that getting in on the ground floor, establishing oneself as a maker of Android-based television gaming hardware in the early days, might be significantly more important than getting the hardware right the first time.

There’s also 2013′s elephant in the room, Apple. In contrast to Valve’s direct statements about its plans for a living-room device, Apple still hasn’t said anything at all about the product that some people in the industry are dead sure will arrive in 2013. It’s Apple TV — that is to say, a new version of its line of set-top boxes that brings the App Store to the television. If it’s difficult to imagine an Ouya or Nvidia device stealing sales from Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo, what about Apple?

It’ll be difficult to predict which of these platforms (iOS? Android? Steam? Something as yet unimagined?) will dominate the television. There are too many variables, too many unknowns. But the idea they all embody — open development environments, prices set by developers, download-only delivery — will certainly take over television gaming just as it ate the lunch of handheld games. It is unstoppable.

Ouya knows that, and Nvidia knows that, and that’s why they’re showing off these products. Expect more of them this year. This is the year it all changes.

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