For videogames, 2013 will be the year of the hardware avalanche. It’ll happen all of a sudden and almost surely cause catastrophic, unpredictable change.
Today at the Consumer Electronics Show, PC hardware maker Nvidia announced its entry into the gaming console market with Shield. It’s based on Android and looks like a smartphone glued to an Xbox controller. Not only will it play Android games, it’ll stream PC games and features an HDMI out for TV display — making it a home console.
In addition to Shield, the upstart Ouya project is humming along, with game creators and hobbyists already tinkering with development kits. This Android-based game machine that was funded on Kickstarter is also slated to drop early this year. Additionally, Valve’s rumored Steam-based console is no longer just a rumor — last month, CEO Gabe Newell told Kotaku it will sell hardware starting in 2013, and PC Gamer added today a report that a Valve engineer recently corroborated this news and said that Valve’s living-room machine would run off Linux.
Meanwhile, the Wii U was just born and there’s every reason to believe that Microsoft and Sony will at least take the veils off, if not actually ship, their new gaming consoles this year. What these upstart devices, from the Steam box to the Shield, all have in common is that they are attempting to upset the console gaming paradigm of the $300 device and the $60 game. A Steam box would aim to bring all kinds of gaming price points to the living room, from free-to-play to full-priced, day-one, triple-A blockbusters (which can then have their prices slashed far below what Microsoft et al. are comfortable with). Ouya and Shield want to use the Android app store to sell cheap but good-looking 720p games on your TV.
I’ve noticed something a little dismaying about the coverage that tends to spring up whenever a new gaming device is introduced. Namely, pundits rush to produce stories about how it is a stupid idea that will never work. Here’s Gamasutra on Shield: “a confused mishmash of current trends.” Penny Arcade: “There is little evidence that mainstream gamers are interested in playing Android games on their television, or in lieu of their other portable gaming options.”
What do you mean, a forest? All I see are these trees! While analyzing the individual merits and flaws of this device or that device can certainly be useful and fun, I think the big picture is getting lost: Everything about living-room gaming is going to change. More and more consumers will be buying their games on open platforms, all but a handful of the biggest games will be playable on these open platforms and they will cost significantly less money than we are paying for them now. The fate of each individual hardware device does not change this; if Ouya goes out of business tomorrow it does not mean that this is not still going to happen.
Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter sent out a note about the state of the traditional console gaming market this morning that included this remark: “We believe that the next generation consoles from Microsoft and Sony will be multimedia devices, and believe that the added features and functionality will allow sales to grow by 10-20% over their current generation offerings, provided pricing is comparable.”
I can’t get my head around how this scenario happens. Microsoft and Sony have sold, roughly, a combined 150 million consoles this generation with effectively zero competition — if you wanted to play the biggest and best games you needed an Xbox 360 or a PlayStation 3. But the next consoles will be released into a vastly different market, one in which Valve plans to sell you a cheap off-the-shelf Linux box that plugs into your TV and plays — I mean, have you looked at all the games on Steam these days?
Fun side note: As game development veteran Ben Cousins pointed out this morning in a Kotaku story, Sony’s and Microsoft’s likely rewards for selling those 150 million consoles have been billions of dollars of losses. By his reckoning, Nintendo is the only company that’s made one thin freaking dime off the game console business in the last decade.
Anyway, there is now a ridiculous amount of competition for gamers’ attentions that simply didn’t exist before. Another prescient Kotaku story: Steven Totilo pointing out that you, yes you, may already own a next-generation gaming console. If all the big games you want to play are released on the PC you already own and are playable with a controller on a TV, what’s the justification for laying out more cash on a new console?
So how is it again that Sony and Microsoft are going to sell more consoles this cycle, when there are so many emerging alternatives?
As I said in my recent piece on the death of the game console, these machines are going to have to be ready for radical change and bring something truly new and innovative to the table. So it’s entirely possible that Microsoft and Sony could really surprise us at E3 with a radical transformation of what an Xbox or a PlayStation can be.
Meanwhile, each new device that competes directly with them takes a stab at pulling the rug out from underneath the big players. It doesn’t matter to us which Android-based device, if any, actually succeeds in the marketplace, because the idea of marrying the Android app store to televisions is the key, not the individual box that does it. Ouya can have a piece, Nvidia can have a piece, and many other makers can release Android-based game devices. Game developers will just support them all in the way they can support a wide variety of slightly different telephones.
It may turn out that getting in on the ground floor, establishing oneself as a maker of Android-based television gaming hardware in the early days, might be significantly more important than getting the hardware right the first time.
There’s also 2013′s elephant in the room, Apple. In contrast to Valve’s direct statements about its plans for a living-room device, Apple still hasn’t said anything at all about the product that some people in the industry are dead sure will arrive in 2013. It’s Apple TV — that is to say, a new version of its line of set-top boxes that brings the App Store to the television. If it’s difficult to imagine an Ouya or Nvidia device stealing sales from Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo, what about Apple?
It’ll be difficult to predict which of these platforms (iOS? Android? Steam? Something as yet unimagined?) will dominate the television. There are too many variables, too many unknowns. But the idea they all embody — open development environments, prices set by developers, download-only delivery — will certainly take over television gaming just as it ate the lunch of handheld games. It is unstoppable.
Ouya knows that, and Nvidia knows that, and that’s why they’re showing off these products. Expect more of them this year. This is the year it all changes.
Why Nvidia's New Console Portends a Transformational Year for Gaming
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Why Nvidia's New Console Portends a Transformational Year for Gaming
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Why Nvidia's New Console Portends a Transformational Year for Gaming
